2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
By Justin Caudell
A storm at the beginning of May already whipped tropical force winds
throughout the Cashiers area this year, and more may be to come.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climatic Data Center is
projecting that present climate conditions point to a near normal or above normal
hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year. Their forecast calls for
considerable activity with a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and
a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. In total, there is a 90 percent
chance of near or above normal hurricane activity.
The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season officially started last Sunday, June 1 and
lasts though Nov. 1.
The science behind NOAA’s outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction
of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with
similar conditions.
“The main factors influencing this year’s seasonal outlook are the continuing
multi-decadal signal (the combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that
have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995), and the anticipated
lingering effects of La Niña,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane
forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “One of the expected oceanic
conditions is a continuation since 1995 of warmer-than-normal temperatures in the
eastern tropical Atlantic.”
The climate patterns anticipated during this year’s hurricane season have in
past seasons produced a wide range of activity and have been associated with
both near-normal and above-normal seasons. For 2008, NOAA’s outlook indicates
a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms forming, of which 6 to 9 will
become hurricanes and 2 to 5 of the formed storms reaching the major hurricane
level. To arrive at this magnitude, a storm must reach Category 3 intensity (111-
130mph winds), Category 4 (131 - 155mph winds) or Category 5 (155mph winds or
greater) on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
An average hurricane season yields 11 named storms, of which six become
hurricanes and two reaching major status.
“The outlook is only a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity
though,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D.,
undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
“It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land. That
is the job of the National Hurricane Center after a storm forms.”
Bill Reed, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, said his
team of forecasters will be prepared for when storms form this season.
“Our forecasters are ready to track any tropical cyclone, from a depression to
a hurricane, which forms in the Atlantic Basin,” said Reed. “We urge coastal
residents to have a hurricane plan in place and the NHC will continue to provide
the best possible forecast to the public.”
Whether in a hurricane prone state or in the path of moving remnants of a
storm, however, Federal Emergency Management Agency Director R. David
Paulson said all Americans should get serious and be prepared.
“Government – even with the federal, tribal, state and local governments
working perfectly in sync – is not the entire answer. Everyone is part of the
emergency management process,” said Paulison. “We must continue to develop a
culture of preparedness in America in which every American takes personal
responsibility for his or her own emergency preparedness.”
Before residents of the United States could be prepared for storms this year
though, a brief scare occurred Saturday, May 31, a day before the hurricane
season even started.
A weak tropical storm formed Saturday off the Yucatan Peninsula and quickly
made landfall at the Belize-Mexico border, dumping rain and kicking up surf. But
the U.S. will not be harmed by the first named storm of the year, Arthur. At the time
of formation, he was moving northwest across the Yucatan with maximum
sustained winds near 40 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
As of press time, Arthur was a tropical depression and had a chance of
strengthening back into a tropical storm before hitting Mexico again south of
Veracruz on Tuesday. It was not expected to become a hurricane.
To keep an eye on Arthur and all of the storms that might form this year and
how they might threaten Cashiers, visit www.cashiershurricanecenter.com, which is
operated locally by Cashiers Weather Service.