Hurricane Season 2007
By Justin Caudell
The Cashiers area has already had near Category 1 hurricane force winds this
year, and it appears more wind is to come. Experts at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Association (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center projected last week a
75 percent chance that the Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal this
year, showing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong.
"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named
storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become
major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm.
Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and
atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
On average, the Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six
becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane
activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal according to NOAA (the set
of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane
activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and
the El Nino/La Nina cycle.
Last year, NOAA's seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an
unexpected El Nino rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for
Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms did develop, steering
currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land.
"This year, there is some uncertainty as to whether or not La Nina will form, and if it
does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane
forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center
is indicating that La Nina could form in the next one to three months. If La Nina
develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or
perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Nina becomes. Even if La Nina
does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era
still favor an above-normal season."
The 2007 hurricane season officially starts this Friday June 1. Nevertheless,
strong winds started back in April for Cashiers. But despite not being in a tropical
prone area, more storms may be on the way for southern Jackson County.
According to Cashiers Weather Service, a favorable African Easterly Jet and
higher pressure in the upper atmosphere will cause a vast majority of the storms
forming this hurricane season to gear towards the Gulf of Mexico - the main
weather-making region for Cashiers. Also, expected westerly winds may push
hurricanes towards the East Coast, posing a greater chance than in years past for
storms to hit the Carolina coastline.
The forecast, coupled with the fact that it seems like only yesterday Hurricanes
Frances and Ivan hit the Cashiers area, a couple residents are sounding off on the
idea of a repeat.
"Living in Florida all my life and seeing the damage a hurricane can do, I don't
even want a tropical depression to come near Cashiers," said John Williams of Ft.
Myers, Fla., and a Cashiers Memorial Day traveler. "I am planning to buy a home
while I am on vacation in the area and I don't want to have to worry about damage
to it already."
Todd Woodson, who has a summer home in Lake Toxaway and winter home in the
Wilmington area, hopes a tropical threat does not infringe on North Carolina too.
"I have sat through Hurricanes Fran, Floyd, and even Frances. I don't want
another hurricane," said Woodson. "All three of those storms just happened to
start with an "F" which reminds me of a report card. You just don't want that stuff."
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, typically
has peak activity occurring in the months of August through October. It is not
uncommon for storms to form in the winter though.