Is Snow on the Way?
Humans and animals have different forecasts
The colorful leaves grasping a hold of trees over the past month have fallen to the
ground and cold temperatures are beginning to invade the area. At this time every
year, residents of the Highlands and Cashiers plateau usually symbolize these themes
of Mother Nature as a shift between the fall and winter seasons. But a frosty December
through February might not be on the horizon this year.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA),
forecasters are calling for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a
continuation of drier-than-average conditions across already drought-stricken parts of
the Southeast in its winter outlook. “La Niña is here, with a weak-to-moderate event
likely to persist through the winter,” said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations
and acting deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The big concern this
winter may be the persistence of drought across large parts of the already parched
South.”
La Niña, which refers to a sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures across a
broad region of the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, influences the position
and strength of the jet stream – which in turn affects winter precipitation and
temperature patterns across the country. The La Niña spells bad news for Jackson
and Macon County because it often means wetter winters in the Pacific Northwest and
drier winters in the Southern parts of the United States. The El Niño event that is
absent this year, had benefited Cashiers and Highlands in years past because a
sustained warming over the Pacific Ocean allowed for cooling and a wetter winter in
the area.
But despite the La Niña though, Halpert says the next few months won’t be a
complete dry period. “While December through February is likely to be a milder-than-
average winter for much of the country, people should still expect some bouts of winter
weather.”
Overall, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s winter outlook shows that Western
North Carolina falls in a region of equal chances of drier, wetter or near average
precipitation based on the thirty year norm (1971 – 2000). “Equal chances for
precipitation means there are currently no strong or consistent climate signals for
either above or below normal conditions during the season,” said Edward O’Lenic, a
longtime seasonal forecaster at the prediction center. “Therefore, an area has an
equal chance of wetter than, drier than or near normal.”
The temperature outlook by NOAA calls for a forty percent or greater chance of
warmer temperatures west of Charlotte over the next few months. While the United
States as a whole will likely be 2.8% warmer than the thirty year norm, yet 1.3% cooler
than last year.
The Cashiers Area Weather Center, which forecasts the weather locally for
Cashiers and Highlands, says the average temperature from December to February is
40 degrees, with an average total of fifteen inches of snow over an eleven day span of
coverage. Although the center also reports that winter often extends into March and
April over the region. Last year, the 40 degree average temperature was on target with
eighteen inches of snow recorded throughout Cashiers and Highlands over fifteen
days of coverage. Two snowstorms contributed to the bulk of the total, one in January
and another in February. The area also saw three ice events and a brief winter storm
in April the day before Easter.
It is unknown for sure what Mother Nature has in store for Cashiers and Highlands
this winter, but before she has a chance to decide, humans are not the only ones
making a prediction this year – a couple animals are too.
At the 30th annual Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina last month,
Armstrong the Woolly Worm had a different forecast for the next few months than the
NOAA Climate Prediction Center projected. According to Armstrong, the first four
weeks of winter will be cold and snowy. The 5th and 6th weeks will be cold, while weeks
7 and 8 will be cold with light snow. Armstrong says to expect a mild spell during weeks
10 and 11, with a cold and snowy close to the winter in weeks 12 and 13.
The black striped catepillar based his forecast on the tradition that says when
black stripes appear on wolly worms, a cold and snowy winter is likely. While if brown
stripes are spotted on wolly worms, a direction more toward milder conditions from
December to February is likely. Over the thirty year festival, the woolly worm has been
all or mostly correct eighty-five percent of the time.
Some people are also leaning more towards a bad winter this year because birds
have appeared to flock away from the area early and squarrels are gathering nuts and
berries in mass supplies to prepare for winter. Folklore says that both of these
occurences may indicate rough days ahead.
If one thing could be certain for the upcoming winter however, it is that whether one
likes snow or not, the dry towns of Cashiers and Highlands would like to side more with
the animals than degree holding humans on what might fall from the clouds.
To track the status of storms throughout the winter season in Cashiers and Highlands,
visit www.issnowontheway.com.